Will Kenya officially remove tax exemptions for East African Community (EAC) imports in the final Finance Act 2026?

Market Context: The Finance Bill 2026 proposes a significant shift in regional trade policy by seeking to remove existing tax exemptions for goods imported from within the East African Community (EAC). Historically, the EAC customs union has facilitated duty-free trade among member states to promote regional integration. The Treasury's proposal aims to boost domestic tax revenue and protect local manufacturing. However, this move risks sparking trade disputes, retaliatory tariffs from neighboring states like Uganda and Tanzania, and intense lobbying from organizations like the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM). Traders must evaluate whether the Kenyan government will prioritize immediate domestic revenue collection over its regional trade treaties. Rules & Oracle: - Oracle: The official publication of the Finance Act 2026 by the Government Printer (Kenya Gazette). - Resolution Rules: This market resolves to 'Yes' if the final, officially gazetted Finance Act 2026 explicitly mandates the removal of tax exemptions for EAC imports. It resolves to 'No' if the exemptions are maintained, or if the clause proposing their removal is completely struck down by parliament during the reading stages. If the clause is only partially implemented (e.g., exemptions are removed for only a specific subset of goods but maintained for most), the market will resolve to 'Yes' as the blanket exemption will have been legally broken. The resolution relies solely on the published text of the gazetted Act.